To:              Vincent DeMarco, President

                   Maryland Citizens’ Health Initiative

From:           Steve Raabe, President

                   OpinionWorks

Date:            April 26, 2006

Subject:       Maryland Likely Voters Support Tobacco Tax for Health Care

 

 


Overview

Our recent Maryland voter survey found convincing support for a proposed one-dollar increase in the state’s tobacco tax dedicated to reducing tobacco use and providing better access to health care for the uninsured.  Two-thirds of likely general election voters in Maryland (66%) favor the tobacco tax proposal, while only 28% oppose it.  In fact, a solid majority of likely voters statewide – 55% – say they support this measure “strongly.”

 

That strong support translates into a persuasive voter cue, as a large number of voters are willing to switch their vote to a candidate of the opposite party in a hypothetical General Assembly election contest on the basis of this issue alone.  Furthermore, the proposed tobacco tax is supported in all regions of the state and by voters of both major political parties, making it one of the few cross-cutting issues in today’s politics.

 

OpinionWorks interviewed a total of 1,214 likely Maryland general election voters by telephone March 31 – April 5, 2006.  This survey has a maximum potential sampling error of ± 2.8% at a 95% confidence level.  A more detailed methodology statement and background on OpinionWorks are found at the conclusion of this memorandum.

 

Strong Support for the Tobacco Tax Proposal

Support for the tobacco tax proposal outweighs opposition by more than two-to-one:

 

Support for One Dollar Tobacco Tax Increase

 

Maryland

Likely Voters

Strongly favor

55%

Favor, not so strongly

11%

Total Favor

66%

Strongly oppose

23%

Oppose, not so strongly

4%

Total Oppose

28%

Not Sure

6%

Note: Numbers may not appear to add correctly due to rounding.

 

Two-thirds of likely voters support the proposed tobacco tax.  It is particularly noteworthy that support is also extremely firm, with 83% of the voters who support the proposal saying they hold that view “strongly.”  This amounts to an outright majority (55%) who strongly support the tobacco tax legislation:

 

The question was asked this way:

 

“Would you favor or oppose a one dollar per pack increase in the state tobacco tax to help fund a program to reduce tobacco use, particularly among children, and to give uninsured Maryland residents better access to health care?”

(If Favor/Oppose):  “Do you feel that way strongly or not so strongly?”

 

Significantly, this issue enjoys broad voter support across gender, racial, and even partisan lines:

w       Men are nearly as likely to support the tobacco tax as are women.

w       African-Americans are only slightly more likely to support it than are white voters.

w       Nearly six in ten registered Republicans support this dedicated tax, and a near-majority (48%) do so strongly.

w       Among those who remain undecided in a gubernatorial match-up between Gov. Ehrlich and Martin O’Malley, 65% support the tax and 56% do so strongly.  The numbers are similar among those undecided in an Ehrlich vs. Doug Duncan contest, with 69% favoring the tax proposal and 60% doing so strongly.

w       Voters who remain undecided about which party’s candidates they will support for General Assembly are 62% in favor of the proposal, 50% strongly.

Cross-Cutting Support for Tobacco Tax Increase

 

Total in Favor

Strongly Favor

Men

62%

51%

Women

70%

59%

Whites

67%

55%

African-Americans

70%

60%

All Others

57%

50%

Democrats

69%

59%

Republicans

59%

48%

Independents/Others

70%

57%

Ehrlich/O’Malley Undecided Voters

65%

56%

Ehrlich/Duncan Undecided Voters

69%

60%

General Assembly Undecided Voters

62%

50%

 

Almost half (45%) of likely voters who smoke at least occasionally favor this one-dollar increase in the tobacco tax aimed at reducing tobacco use and improving access to health care.  All-told, 13% of likely voters in Maryland are smokers, a number that tracks with surveys in other states.

 

Support by Region of the State

 

There is no area of the state where the proposed tobacco tax is opposed by a majority of voters.  Among likely voters, support for the tobacco tax tops 60% in every major jurisdiction and region of the state, except for the three counties of Southern Maryland where support stands at 53%.  Support for this proposal reaches into the 70s in the Washington suburban counties.

 

Tobacco Tax Support by Major Jurisdiction/Region

 

Favor

Strongly Favor

Oppose

Howard

78%

63%

21%

Montgomery

75%

60%

16%

Greater Washington1

73%

59%

23%

Prince George’s

72%

60%

25%

Eastern Shore2

68%

56%

22%

Baltimore County

63%

52%

28%

Baltimore City

63%

56%

27%

Greater Baltimore3

63%

53%

31%

Western Maryland4

63%

56%

33%

Rural Counties5

62%

54%

29%

Anne Arundel

60%

51%

36%

Southern Maryland6

53%

42%

39%

1 Charles, Frederick, Howard, Montgomery, Prince George’s

2 Caroline, Cecil, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico, Worcester

3 Anne Arundel, Baltimore City, Baltimore County, Carroll, Harford, Howard

4 Allegany, Frederick, Garrett, Washington

5 14 smallest counties: Allegany, Calvert, Caroline, Cecil, Dorchester, Garrett, Kent, Queen Anne’s, St. Mary’s, Somerset, Talbot, Washington, Wicomico, Worcester

6 Calvert, Charles, St. Mary’s

 

Impact of the Tobacco Tax on State Legislative Races

 

You asked us to test the possible impact of the tobacco tax proposal as a voter cue in this November’s state elections.  We found that a candidate’s position on this issue could have an enormous impact on its own, potentially swinging as many as one-third of voters in a General Assembly race.

 

As a baseline gauge of the partisan terrain this year, we asked a so-called “generic ballot test” question regarding voting intentions for the General Assembly.  At this stage, still seven months out from the election, Democrats appear to have a healthy 19-point edge in General Assembly races (54% to 35%).  Both parties are picking up about four out of five of their own partisans.

But that 19-point Democratic advantage becomes 27 percentage points when voters are asked their intentions in a race between a Democrat who supports the tobacco tax vs. a Republican who opposes it.  While the Democratic vote does not change in statistical terms, the Republican loses one-quarter of his/her support.

 

More dramatic is the opposite scenario, with a Republican supporting the tobacco tax proposal and a Democrat opposing it.  Here, the race becomes a dead heat between the two parties, with the Republican holding perhaps a slight edge.  The net voter swing between these two scenarios is 30 percentage points.

 

Voter Intentions in Local General Assembly Races

 

Support Democratic Candidate

Support Republican Candidate

Net Democratic Vote

Vote Swing

Generic Ballot Test1

54%

35%

+ 19%

---

Democrat supports tobacco tax increase;

Republican opposes it.2

53%

26%

+ 27%

+8D

Republican supports tobacco tax increase;

Democrat opposes it.3

37%

40%

– 3%

+22R

Note: Some voters were undecided or said they would vote for a third party candidate.

1 “Suppose the election for the Maryland legislature were being held today. Would you vote for more of the (rotate): [Republican Party's or Democratic Party's] candidates in your district?”  (If not sure): “As of today, do you lean more toward the (rotate): [Republican or Democratic] candidates?” (Table includes support + lean.)

2 “In the election this November, if you had a choice of two candidates for state legislature, which candidate would you vote for... (rotate): [a Democrat who supports (the plan to increase the tobacco tax to fund tobacco prevention and health care) or a Republican who opposes (it)]?”

3 “In the election this November, if you had a choice of two candidates for state legislature, which candidate would you vote for... (rotate): [a Democrat who opposes (the plan to increase the tobacco tax to fund tobacco prevention and health care) or a Republican who supports (it)]?”

 

The reason for this polling exercise is to investigate the willingness of voters to depart from their normal partisan inclinations.  Many voters appear to want to punish candidates who do not support the tobacco tax, with the effect particularly striking for Democrats who may lose as much as one-third of their support according to our hypothetical ballot test.

 

 

Importance of Health Care as an Issue in Maryland

 

By way of background, access to health care is a major concern of voters in Maryland.  A statewide voter survey conducted in February by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates found that 71% of voters said “a lack of affordable health insurance coverage” was either an “extremely serious” or a “very serious” problem in Maryland.  This was the second highest level of concern behind “crime, drugs and gangs,” which reached 76%.

 

A January 2005 voter survey for The Sun found that access to health care was the second most-often mentioned “important challenge facing Maryland today – I mean the one you would most like to see the governor and legislature do something about,” following only education/schools.

 

How This Survey Was Conducted

 

OpinionWorks interviewed 1,214 likely Maryland voters by telephone March 31 – April 5, 2006.  This likely voter sample carries a maximum potential margin of sampling error of ± 2.8% at a 95% confidence level.  That is to say, 95% of the time the survey results would differ from the actual views of likely voters statewide by no more than 2.8% if every likely voter in Maryland had been interviewed.

 

Interviewees were drawn from the most current file of registered voters available, provided by the local boards of elections across the state and matched with telephone numbers by a commercial vendor.  Voters were selected randomly to be interviewed if they had voted in either of the last two general elections, or had registered to vote since then.  Voters were further screened to ensure they intend to vote this November.  Weights were applied to bring the voter sample into strict compliance with the expected 2006 turnout patterns within seven regions of the state based on gender, partisanship, and race or ethnicity.

 

Brief Background on OpinionWorks

 

OpinionWorks’ principal, Steve Raabe, has been writing and conducting surveys of Maryland voters dating back to 1992 on numerous issues.  From 2001 to 2005 he was the methodologist and primary author of the polling program of The (Baltimore) Sun; the identical methodology has been applied to this voter survey.  OpinionWorks’ current clients include the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce, the Museum Association of New York, The Wilderness Society, Colgate University, the New York State Historical Association, Oxford University, the Open Society Institute, and the American Society of Interior Designers.

1.   Intention to vote screen.

 

2.   Suppose the election for the Maryland legislature were being held today. Would you vote for more of the (rotate): [Republican Party's or Democratic Party's] candidates in your district?  (If other/not sure): As of today, do you lean more toward the (rotate): [Republican or Democratic] candidates?

(Similar to Newsweek formulation at the national level.)

 

Support Republican...................................................................................... 31%

Lean Republican............................................................................................. 4%

Support Democratic..................................................................................... 49%

Lean Democratic............................................................................................ 5%

Not sure/Other.............................................................................................. 11%

 

 

3.   Would you favor or oppose a one dollar per pack increase in the state tobacco tax to help fund a program to reduce tobacco use, particularly among children, and to give uninsured Maryland residents better access to health care?  (If favor/oppose):  Do you feel that way strongly or not so strongly?

 

Strongly favor (4).......................................................................................... 55%

Not so strongly favor/Uncertain intensity (3)................................................ 11%

Not so strongly oppose/Uncertain intensity (2).............................................. 4%

Strongly oppose (1)...................................................................................... 23%

Not sure/Refused........................................................................................... 6%

 

 

(Rotate Q.4 and Q.5):

4.   In the election this November, if you had a choice of two candidates for state legislature, which candidate would you vote for... (rotate): [a Democrat who supports (the plan to increase the tobacco tax to fund tobacco prevention and health care) or a Republican who opposes (it)]?

 

Republican.................................................................................................... 26%

Democrat...................................................................................................... 53%

Not sure/Other.............................................................................................. 21%

 

 

5.   In the election this November, if you had a choice of two candidates for state legislature, which candidate would you vote for... (rotate): [a Democrat who opposes (the plan to increase the tobacco tax to fund tobacco prevention and health care) or a Republican who supports (it)]?

 

Republican.................................................................................................... 40%

Democrat...................................................................................................... 37%

Not sure/Other.............................................................................................. 24%

Appendix: Voter Intentions in Local General Assembly Races

 

 

Voter Intentions - Statewide

 

Support Democratic Candidate

Support Republican Candidate

Net Democratic Vote

Vote Swing

Generic Ballot Test1

54%

35%

+19%

---

Democrat supports tobacco tax increase;

Republican opposes it.2

53%

26%

+27%

+8D

Republican supports tobacco tax increase;

Democrat opposes it.3

37%

40%

– 3%

+22R

Note: Some voters were undecided or said they would vote for a third party candidate.

 

 

Voter Intentions - Montgomery

 

Support Democratic Candidate

Support Republican Candidate

Net Democratic Vote

Vote Swing

Generic Ballot Test1

63%

26%

+37%

---

Democrat supports tobacco tax increase;

Republican opposes it.2

65%

15%

+50%

+13D

Republican supports tobacco tax increase;

Democrat opposes it.3

38%

34%

+4%

+33R

 

 

Voter Intentions – Prince George’s